Laura Schemitsch, Canadian Immigration and Refugee Lawyer, Heron Law Offices
The 2024 United States presidential election is set for Tuesday, November 5, 2024. Immigration has been a hot topic in the widely anticipated upcoming election between the Republican nominee, infamous former president, Donald Trump and the Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris (who recently replaced former president Joe Biden after he stepped down from the race due to pressure from his party in July 2024).
While Trump was president from 2016-2020, he enacted 472 administrative changes that significantly impacted the U.S. immigration system by seriously reducing migration numbers and humanitarian protections for migrants. According to a 2022 report by the Migration Policy Institute, “Trump’s election brought into mainstream political discourse the previously fringe idea that legal immigration is a threat to the United States’ economy and security.” Such “chilling effects” included increasing enforcement and removal proceedings, significant decreases of humanitarian and asylum admissions, and an attempt to end the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA), a program that provides protection and work authorization to immigrants without legal status who were brought to the U.S. as children. While Americans pushed Trump out of office and elected Joe Biden in 2020, marking a desire for some change, this change was seemingly short lived as there has been a noticeable decline in support for immigration and increased support for tighter border policies in the U.S.A. since Trump’s exit from office in 2020.
A Gallup poll has identified immigration as the most important problem in the U.S. for 27% of Americans. With Trump’s efforts to return to office in 2024, he has taken advantage of these increasingly negative sentiments to promote his “hardline immigration policies” as part of his 2024 election platform, including plans to deport millions of unauthorized people.
Canada has experienced a similar shift in public opinion that is increasingly anti-immigration. An October 2022 poll by the Environics Institute found that 7 out of 10 Canadians were supportive of current immigration levels, the largest majority recorded by Environics in 45 years. More recent reports reveal waning support for immigration amongst Canadians. According to an October 2023 Environics report:
“This expanding view that Canada is taking in too many immigrants is driven in large part by rising concerns about how newcomers may be contributing to the housing crisis. At the same time, the public is now much less likely to say that too much immigration represents a threat to the country’s culture and values.”
By January 2024, Canada started to introduce significant changes, starting with the international student program, seen by many advocates as “blaming immigrants for bad policies.” For the next two years, Canada has limited the international student intake and increased policies such as doubling the proof of funds required for entry.
We are also now seeing the impacts of anti-immigrant sentiment on Canada’s immigration policies for foreign workers. On August 26, 2024, Minister Boissonnault announced significant changes to the Low-Wage LMIA stream that go into effect on September 26, 2024, including a refusal to process LMIA applications for low-wage positions in census metropolitan areas with an unemployment rate of 6% or higher, a 10% cap on low-wage foreign worker positions (down from 20%), and a reduced employment duration for low-wage positions reduced to 1 year from 2 years (It is worth noting that a “low wage worker” could be making $28 per hour in British Columbia, $29 in Alberta based on the median hourly wage which determines whether an LMIA is high or low wage).
Another stark change was the recent announcement to immediately end the temporary public policy that allowed visitors to apply for a work permit from within Canada. The temporary policy was set to expire on February 28, 2025, however IRCC is “ending the policy as part of our overall efforts to recalibrate the number of temporary residents in Canada and to preserve the integrity of the immigration system.”
The Government has hinted that there may be additional changes to the high-wage LMIA program and it remains to be seen if there will be changes to LMIA exempt work permit programs, humanitarian applications and permanent resident numbers. Additionally, the Government has hinted at potential changes to permanent resident numbers. These recent changes to Canada’s immigration system will certainly have short- and long-term impacts that remain to be seen.
In spite of this shift, the reality remains that Canada’s economic prosperity is dependent on immigration. The availability of a strong, robust, and qualified tax-paying labour force positively contributes to funding public services such as health care and education and Canada’s overall economy. The need for immigration is largely due to Canada’s aging population, with 5 million Canadians set to retire by 2030. It is predicted that there will only be 3 workers for every retiree by 2030, compared to 6 workers in 1980.
This recent shift in public opinion raises concerns about a fundamental misunderstanding of the importance of a well-functioning immigration system in Canada. As Canada also heads towards a federal election, immigration will undoubtedly be a major topic of debate. Conservative Party leader Pierre Polievre has called for cuts on the number of immigrants arriving in Canada and blaming the current government for a “surge in international students and low-wage temporary foreign workers.”
Amidst suggestions that Canada’s housing crisis means immigration needs to slow down, a more effective approach involves Canada improving its immigration system to facilitate the entry of immigrants needed to resolve ongoing labour shortages in crucial sectors and increase the housing supply. It is in Canada’s best interests for the Government in power to promote the crucial benefits of immigration and policies that align with Canada’s long term economic goals.
